What is the COVID-19 Vulnerability Index?

Conduent’s COVID-19 Vulnerability Index is a measure of potential severe illness burden due to COVID-19 across the country and by county. The index combines prevalence and death rates for chronic conditions associated with poor COVID-19 outcomes, Conduent’s SocioNeeds Index and daily COVID-19 case counts. Counties are given an index value from 1 (low vulnerability) to 10 (high vulnerability). A county with a high vulnerability score can be described as a location where a higher percentage of COVID-19 cases would be severe as compared to a county with a low vulnerability score.

To identify the relative level of risk for residents in a county, the national index values for each county are sorted from low to high and divided into 5 ranks. These ranks are used to color the Vulnerability Index map.

How was the COVID-19 Vulnerability Index calculated?

Conduent’s COVID-19 Vulnerability Index used statistical modeling to predict potential numbers of COVID-19 infections at the county level. The model considered COVID-19 reported case counts, clinical risk factors, and socioeconomic determinants of health including Conduent’s SocioNeeds Index^TM. Clinical risk factors include population level metrics of diabetes, chronic lower respiratory disease, obesity, vaccination rates, behavioral risk factors, and access to primary care.

Why do some counties have no index value?

Calculation of index values was limited by availability of values for the clinical and socioeconomic risk factors that are included in the model. Values for the risk factors may be unavailable due to low counts or statistical instability. The COVID-19 Vulnerability Index is available for approximately 2,170 counties in the U.S. but may fluctuate with daily updates.

Where is the data from?

Data was retrieved from the following sources:

• New York Times Cumulative COVID-19 Case Counts Data Repository
• Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Underlying Cause of Death database
• U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey
• County Health Rankings 2020
• Conduent Healthy Communities Institute 2020 SocioNeeds Index^TM

What is the SocioNeeds Index^TM?

The 2020 SocioNeeds Index, created by Conduent Healthy Communities Institute, is a measure of socioeconomic need that is correlated with poor health outcomes. Social and economic factors are well known to be strong determinants of health outcomes – those with a low socioeconomic status are more likely to suffer from chronic conditions such as diabetes, obesity, and cancer. The SocioNeeds Index summarizes multiple socio-economic indicators into one composite score for easier identification of high need areas by county.

All counties and county equivalents in the United States are given an index value from 0 (low need) to 100 (high need). The SocioNeeds Index is calculated for a community from several social and economic factors that may impact health or access to care, including income, education, poverty, occupation, unemployment, and language. The index is correlated with potentially preventable hospitalization rates and is calculated using Claritas estimates for 2020.

Data Considerations

Cases in New York City, NY and Kansas City, MO, both of which span several counties have not been included in the model calculation at this time.

Data processing time: Our data scientists process new case data and update the Vulnerability Index model daily. As we have found the most recent day’s case count data may be incomplete from NYTimes Github, we process data with a 2-day lag. For example, the index on April 21 will use cumulative case count through April 19.